Preparing for War with China: $133 Billion in Federal Contracts the Pentagon Does Not Want You to Add Up

Add Up the Contracts. Then Tell Me Nobody Is Preparing.

In March 2026, the Pentagon told Congress that China "does not currently plan to execute an invasion of Taiwan in 2027, nor do they have a fixed timeline."

The same month, the Pentagon awarded:

That was one month. In one year, the traceable contracts tell a story the briefings will not.

We identified $133 billion in active federal contracts directly tied to deterring, preparing for, or fighting a war with China over Taiwan. This is not classified spending. This is not speculation. These are publicly awarded contracts with named contractors, dollar amounts, and delivery timelines - all searchable in federal procurement databases.

Here is every dollar.

The $133 Billion Map

If you include the full Sentinel ICBM lifecycle cost of $140.9 billion, the number exceeds $270 billion. We are using only the near-term, actively obligated contracts for the $133 billion figure.

Submarines: $33.9 Billion

Submarines are the most survivable platform in a Pacific war. They cannot be targeted by China's massive land-based missile arsenal, and they can operate inside China's anti-access zone where surface ships and aircraft cannot survive. The Navy is spending accordingly.

Columbia-Class Nuclear Ballistic Missile Submarines

Contractor: General Dynamics Electric Boat

Contract: $15.38 billion modification (March 2026)

Program Total: Estimated $130+ billion for 12 submarines

Purpose: Replace the aging Ohio-class nuclear deterrent fleet

Each Columbia-class submarine displaces 21,000 tonnes, stretches 171 meters, and carries 16 Trident II D5 nuclear ballistic missiles. Three are currently under construction: USS District of Columbia, USS Wisconsin, and USS Groton.

This is the sea-based nuclear deterrent. In a China war scenario, Columbia-class submarines ensure that even a successful first strike on US territory cannot eliminate America's ability to retaliate with nuclear weapons.

Virginia-Class Attack Submarines

Contractors: General Dynamics Electric Boat ($12.4-17.2B) + Huntington Ingalls ($1.3B)

Contract: Up to $18.5 billion (April 2025)

Vessels: USS Baltimore and USS Atlanta (Block V)

Virginia-class attack subs are the offensive weapon. Block V variants carry the Virginia Payload Module with 28 additional Tomahawk cruise missile tubes. In a Taiwan scenario, these submarines would be the primary platform for launching strikes against Chinese naval bases, missile sites, and command infrastructure from positions Beijing cannot detect.

The Navy also plans to sell 3-5 Virginia-class submarines to Australia under the AUKUS agreement, creating a second submarine force operating in China's backyard.

Fed-Spend Insight: General Dynamics Electric Boat received $33.9B in submarine contracts in a single 12-month period. Search General Dynamics submarine contracts on Fed-Spend

Stealth Bombers: $4.5 Billion+

B-21 Raider Production Acceleration

Contractor: Northrop Grumman

Contract: $4.5 billion production acceleration agreement (February 2026)

Budget: $10 billion in FY2026 for B-21 development

Unit Cost: ~$700 million per aircraft

Target Fleet: 100 bombers (STRATCOM wants 145)

The B-21 Raider is the only new aircraft designed specifically for the Pacific theater. Its unrefueled range, stealth characteristics, and ability to carry both conventional and nuclear weapons make it the platform most feared by Chinese military planners.

The February 2026 agreement increases annual production by 25% - approximately two additional bombers per year. The first operational B-21 is expected at Ellsworth Air Force Base in 2026.

STRATCOM Commander is advocating to expand the fleet from 100 to 145 aircraft, which would require opening a second production line. At $700M per plane, that expansion alone represents $31.5 billion in additional procurement.

Fed-Spend Insight: Northrop Grumman's Palmdale facility is the most concentrated defense production site in America right now. Search Northrop Grumman B-21 contracts on Fed-Spend

Missiles & Munitions: $20.7 Billion+

You cannot fight a war without missiles, and the US does not have enough. Every wargame simulation of a Taiwan conflict shows the US exhausting its missile inventory within one to two weeks. The Pentagon is spending aggressively to fix that.

JASSM-ER and LRASM: $9.5 Billion

Contractor: Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control

Contract: $9.485 billion (cumulative through August 2025)

Missiles: AGM-158B JASSM-ER (air-launched cruise missile) + AGM-158C LRASM (anti-ship missile)

LRASM is the missile designed to sink Chinese warships. It is a stealthy, autonomous anti-ship weapon that can identify and strike targets without GPS guidance - critical in a contested electromagnetic environment. Lockheed is building a new 225,000-square-foot "intelligent factory" in Troy, Alabama to surge production.

Allied buyers include Japan, Poland, the Netherlands, and Finland.

Precision Strike Missile (PrSM): $4.9 Billion

Contractor: Lockheed Martin

Contract: Up to $4.9 billion IDIQ

Purpose: Quadruple production capacity of the Army's next-generation tactical missile

PrSM is the replacement for ATACMS with significantly longer range (500+ km). In a Pacific scenario, PrSM batteries deployed to Japan, the Philippines, and Guam can threaten Chinese naval assets and staging areas from land - creating a missile barrier across the First Island Chain.

Typhon Mid-Range Capability

Deploying to: Philippines (expanded deployment confirmed 2026)

Missiles: Tomahawk cruise missiles + SM-6 multi-role missiles

Range: ~1,000 miles

The US deployed Typhon launchers to northern Luzon in April 2024 and is expanding that deployment in 2026. These ground-based launchers put Chinese military installations in the South China Sea within strike range from Philippine soil.

155mm Artillery Ammunition: $1.3 Billion+

Contractors: MSM Group North America ($635M), Global Military Products ($640M)

Target: 100,000 rounds per month by mid-2026 (up from 14,000/month in 2022)

Facility: New Future Artillery Complex at Iowa Army Ammunition Plant

Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles

Contractors: Lockheed Martin + Raytheon (joint venture)

Goal: Double production to ~4,800 units per year by 2026

Fed-Spend Insight: Lockheed Martin's missile portfolio alone exceeds $14 billion in active contracts. This is the largest munitions production expansion since the Cold War. Search Lockheed Martin missile contracts on Fed-Spend

Autonomous Systems: $20.5 Billion+

Every wargame shows the same result: in a China fight, autonomous systems are force multipliers that can absorb losses without casualties. The Replicator program is explicitly designed to flood the Pacific with cheap, expendable drones.

Anduril: $20 Billion Counter-Drone Framework

Contractor: Anduril Industries

Contract: $20 billion ceiling, 10-year (March 2026)

Scope: AI-powered Lattice platform, counter-drone hardware, data capabilities

This single contract consolidates over 120 separate procurement actions into one enterprise agreement. Anduril's Lattice software provides the AI backbone for autonomous systems across the military - the operating system for drone warfare.

Anduril's Ghost-X drones were selected for the Replicator program's mass production tranche, with the first drone swarms already deployed to the Indo-Pacific.

Replicator Program: $500M+ Annual

Multiple contractors

Annual funding: $500 million

Purpose: Mass-produce thousands of expendable autonomous systems to counter China

The first Replicator drones were delivered to the Indo-Pacific in early 2025. The program buys unmanned aerial, surface, and underwater vehicles from multiple vendors including Anduril, Saronic, and others.

Naval Autonomous Vessels: $500M+

As we detailed in our drone boats deep dive, the Navy is spending over $1 billion on autonomous surface vessels from Saronic ($441M), Leidos ($422M), Seasats ($113M), and others. In a Pacific war, these unmanned vessels extend the fleet's sensor and strike reach without risking sailors.

Fed-Spend Insight: Anduril went from startup to $20B contract holder in under five years. The autonomous systems market is where the growth is. Search Anduril contracts on Fed-Spend

Pacific Base Construction: $15.6 Billion+

You cannot project power without bases. The US is building a ring of fortified installations around China's perimeter.

Guam: $15 Billion Construction IDIQ

Contract: $15 billion IDIQ, 8-year ordering period (September 2025)

Contractors: 10 firms including BL Harbert, Black Construction-Tutor Perini, Hensel Phelps, Granite-Obayashi, and others

Scope: Barracks, administrative offices, communications, schools, hospitals, warehouses

This single contract represents the largest military construction program in the Pacific since World War II. Guam is being transformed from a strategic backwater into a fortress.

Camp Blaz Communications Center: $290 Million

Contractor: Core Tech-HDCC-Kajima LLC

Value: $289.76 million (options to $357M)

Location: Marine Corps Base Camp Blaz, Guam

Completion: March 2029

Camp Blaz is the first new Marine Corps base activated since 1952. This communications center will serve as the command nerve for Marine forces in the Western Pacific.

Guam Missile Defense Site: $181 Million

Contractor: Black Construction-Tutor Perini JV

Value: $181.1 million

Purpose: Self-powered missile defense installation

4th Fleet / SOUTHCOM HQ: $50 Million

Contractor: RQ Construction LLC

Value: $49.7 million

Location: Naval Station Mayport, FL

Fed-Spend Insight: The 10 firms on the $15B Guam IDIQ will compete for task orders for years. This is the largest construction pipeline in the Pacific. Search Guam military construction on Fed-Spend

Guam Missile Defense: $8 Billion+

Guam hosts Andersen Air Force Base (bombers), Naval Base Guam (submarines), and soon Camp Blaz (Marines). It is the single most important US military hub in the Western Pacific. China knows this - and has missiles that can reach it.

Aegis Ashore Guam: $8 Billion Program

Lead Contractor: Lockheed Martin ($1.52 billion awarded)

Total Program: $8 billion for 16 sites

System: Ground-based Aegis with SM-3 and SM-6 interceptors

Status: Environmental approval September 2025, successful intercept test December 2024

This is a 360-degree integrated air and missile defense shield for the entire island. Sixteen sites will provide layered protection against ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons. In December 2024, the system successfully intercepted a mid-range ballistic missile target.

The $8 billion price tag makes this one of the most expensive missile defense installations ever built - a direct measure of how seriously the Pentagon takes the Chinese missile threat to Guam.

Fed-Spend Insight: Missile defense contracts are split between construction firms, radar manufacturers, and interceptor producers. The supply chain is deep. Search missile defense contracts on Fed-Spend

ICBM Modernization: $140.9 Billion

Sentinel (LGM-35A): The Nuclear Backstop

Contractor: Northrop Grumman (sole source)

Current Cost Estimate: $140.9 billion (up from $77.7B initial estimate)

Scope: Replace all 450 Minuteman III ICBMs, rebuild 450 silos and 600+ launch facilities

Timeline: Initial operational capability in early 2030s, service through 2075

Sentinel is not a Pacific weapons system per se - it is the nuclear deterrent that prevents any China conflict from escalating to a full nuclear exchange. The theory: if China knows the US can absorb a first strike and still destroy Chinese cities with Sentinel ICBMs, China will never escalate to nuclear weapons.

The program involves thousands of miles of new fiber-optic cabling, modernized launch facilities across Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Colorado, and 634 total missiles.

At $140.9 billion, Sentinel is the most expensive weapons procurement program in American history.

Taiwan Arms Sales: $32 Billion Backlog

The US is not just preparing its own forces - it is arming Taiwan directly.

Current Backlog: $32 Billion

As of February 2026, Taiwan has $32 billion in approved US weapons purchases that have not yet been fully delivered. Seven cases worth $6.26 billion have been partially delivered.

December 2025 Package: $11.1 Billion

The largest single arms sale ever approved for Taiwan:

Pending Package: $14 Billion

An additional $14 billion package including advanced interceptor missiles is reportedly ready for approval after President Trump's May 2026 China visit.

Taiwan's Defense Budget

Taiwan has proposed a special defense budget of NT$1.25 trillion (~$40 billion) over eight years, with $28.5 billion earmarked for US arms purchases. The opposition legislature has approved only $12.5 billion so far.

Fed-Spend Insight: Taiwan arms sales flow through the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) and Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program. These do not appear in standard FPDS data but are tracked separately. Search defense security cooperation contracts on Fed-Spend

The 2027 Deadline: Real or Not?

US intelligence assessed in late 2025 that China was preparing to be capable of winning a Taiwan conflict by 2027 - the centenary of the People's Liberation Army's founding. As of March 2026, the assessment shifted: China does not have a "fixed timeline" for unification.

But capability and intent are different things. The contracts suggest the Pentagon is not betting on Chinese restraint.

What the Wargames Show

The Center for a New American Security (CNAS) wargamed a 2027 Taiwan conflict and found:

The "Test War" Scenario

Strategic analysts increasingly believe the most likely near-term scenario is not a full invasion of Taiwan's main island but a limited seizure of offshore islands like Kinmen or Matsu - a "test war" designed to gauge US response at lower risk.

This scenario would test every system the US is buying: missile defense, autonomous surveillance, submarine strike capability, and allied interoperability.

Who Is Getting Paid

The Big 5 Defense Primes

The New Entrants

The Builders

What This Means for Contractors

The Opportunity

The Pacific Deterrence Initiative alone is $10 billion per year and growing. Guam construction is $15 billion over eight years. Munitions production is being quadrupled. The autonomous systems market is exploding. There has not been a defense spending surge of this magnitude focused on a single theater since the Cold War.

Where Small Businesses Fit

Every prime contract over $750,000 requires a small business subcontracting plan. That means:

NAICS Codes to Watch

The Timeline

Follow the Money

The Pentagon says no one is preparing for war with China. The contracts say $133 billion and counting.

We are not making a prediction about whether war will happen. We are showing you where the money is going, who is getting it, and what they are building. The federal procurement data is public. The conclusions are yours to draw.

Use Fed-Spend to:

The largest peacetime military buildup since the Cold War is happening right now. The contracts are searchable. The question is whether you are paying attention.

Search Pacific defense contracts on Fed-Spend | Set up defense contract alerts

FAQ: US-China War Preparation and Federal Contracts

How much is the US spending to prepare for a potential war with China?

Based on publicly traceable federal contracts, we identified over $133 billion in active awards directly tied to Pacific deterrence, including $33.9B in submarine contracts, $20.7B in missile and munitions production, $20.5B in autonomous systems, $15.6B in Pacific base construction, $8B in Guam missile defense, and $4.5B in stealth bomber production. The full Sentinel ICBM program adds $140.9B in lifecycle costs. The Pacific Deterrence Initiative budget is $10 billion per year.

Is the US preparing to invade Taiwan or defend it?

The US does not plan to invade Taiwan. The contract spending is entirely defensive in orientation - designed to deter China from attacking Taiwan by ensuring the US can impose unacceptable costs if China does attack. This includes forward-deployed missiles, submarine strike capability, autonomous surveillance, missile defense for US bases, and direct arms sales to Taiwan.

What is the Pacific Deterrence Initiative?

The PDI is a dedicated DOD budget line created to fund Indo-Pacific military capabilities, totaling $10 billion in FY2026. It covers base construction, military exercises, logistics prepositioning, allied capacity building, and advanced weapons deployment across the region.

Which defense contractors benefit most from China deterrence spending?

The five largest beneficiaries by contract value are General Dynamics ($34B+ for submarines), Lockheed Martin ($25B+ for missiles and missile defense), Northrop Grumman ($4.5B+ for B-21 bombers plus $140.9B for Sentinel ICBMs), Anduril ($20B for autonomous systems), and RTX/Raytheon ($10B+ for interceptors and radar). Construction firms on the $15B Guam IDIQ also hold significant value.

Will there be a war with China over Taiwan?

US intelligence as of March 2026 assesses that China does not have a fixed timeline for taking Taiwan and prefers peaceful unification. However, China is building the military capability to take Taiwan by force if needed, with a readiness benchmark of 2027. Most analysts consider a limited "test war" against Taiwan's offshore islands more likely than a full invasion in the near term.

How can I find Pacific defense contract opportunities?

Monitor contract awards from NAVSEA (submarines), Air Force Life Cycle Management Center (bombers and missiles), NAVFAC Pacific (Guam construction), Missile Defense Agency (Guam missile defense), and Army Contracting Command (munitions). Use Fed-Spend to search by NAICS code, agency, and contractor to identify subcontracting opportunities and upcoming recompetes.