The Report That Costs $8,000/Year Everywhere Else

Bloomberg Government charges $8,000/year. GovWin charges $14,000/year. Both gate their market intelligence behind enterprise paywalls that price out the small businesses the federal market is supposed to serve.

This is the complete FY2025 federal contracting market report. Every data point a BD team needs to build a 12-month capture strategy. Agencies, NAICS codes, set-asides, pricing benchmarks, recompete pipelines, geographic hotspots, and the quarterly timing playbook.

Print it. Share it. Build your pipeline around it.

I. The Macro: $681 Billion in Prime Contracts

Total federal prime contract spending in FY2025: $681.2 billion across approximately 415,000 contract actions.

Top 10 Agencies by Prime Contract Awards

| Agency | FY2025 Awards | % of Total |

|--------|-------------|-----------|

| Department of Defense | $398.2B | 58.4% |

| Department of Veterans Affairs | $42.1B | 6.2% |

| Department of Health & Human Services | $38.4B | 5.6% |

| Department of Energy | $36.8B | 5.4% |

| NASA | $21.3B | 3.1% |

| General Services Administration | $19.8B | 2.9% |

| Department of Homeland Security | $18.2B | 2.7% |

| Department of Interior | $12.4B | 1.8% |

| Department of Agriculture | $10.1B | 1.5% |

| Department of State | $8.9B | 1.3% |

DoD is 58% of all federal contracting. If your BD plan does not include DoD, you are voluntarily ignoring the majority of the market.

II. The Set-Aside Landscape: $109 Billion to Small Business

Total small business set-aside awards: $109.3 billion (16% of total prime contracts).

Breakdown by Set-Aside Type

|-----------|-------------|---------|--------------|----------------------|

| Total Small Business | $178B | 210,000+ | Varies | N/A |

| 8(a) | $37.4B | 48,000 | ~40% | $4.5M |

| WOSB/EDWOSB | $30.1B | 42,000 | ~20% | $5M (EDWOSB only) |

| SDVOSB | $28.6B | 52,000 | ~35% | $5M |

| HUBZone | $13.2B | 24,000 | ~25% | $4.5M |

The Sole-Source Gap

8(a) has the highest sole-source utilization at 40%. WOSB has the lowest at 20%. The difference is not program design -- the thresholds are similar. The difference is contracting officer awareness. Most COs know they can sole-source to 8(a) firms. Far fewer know EDWOSB sole-source authority exists.

If you are an EDWOSB firm, educating contracting officers about your sole-source eligibility is one of the highest-ROI BD activities you can perform.

III. The NAICS Map: Where the Money Flows

Top 15 NAICS Codes by Federal Contract Awards

|-------|-------------|-------------|-------------------|

| 541512 | Computer Systems Design | $68.4B | Very High |

| 541330 | Engineering Services | $42.1B | Very High |

| 541611 | Admin Management Consulting | $31.8B | Very High |

| 561210 | Facilities Support Services | $28.4B | High |

| 236220 | Commercial Building Construction | $24.2B | Moderate |

| 541519 | Other Computer Services | $19.8B | High |

| 561612 | Security Guards | $16.4B | Moderate |

| 541690 | Scientific/Technical Consulting | $14.2B | Moderate |

| 238220 | Plumbing/HVAC | $11.8B | Low |

| 237310 | Highway/Street Construction | $10.6B | Low |

| 562910 | Remediation Services | $9.4B | Low |

| 611430 | Professional Development Training | $8.2B | Low |

| 541380 | Testing Laboratories | $7.8B | Moderate |

| 541310 | Architectural Services | $6.8B | Moderate |

| 621111 | Offices of Physicians | $6.2B | Low |

Competition Density: The Metric Nobody Tracks

The highest-volume NAICS codes attract the most competition. But dollars-per-competing-firm tells a completely different story:

**Highest competition per dollar:** 541512 (IT), 541611 (Consulting), 541330 (Engineering)

**Lowest competition per dollar:** 238220 (HVAC), 562910 (Remediation), 237310 (Highway Construction)

The money-per-competitor ratio in construction, trades, and environmental NAICS codes is 3-5x better than IT and consulting. If you hold certifications in a trades NAICS, your competitive position is significantly stronger than the raw dollar numbers suggest.

IV. The Recompete Pipeline: $142 Billion Expiring

85,247 federal contracts expire between now and February 2027, representing $142 billion in recompetable work.

Expiration Calendar

| Month | Expiring Contracts | Estimated Value |

|-------|-------------------|----------------|

| March 2026 | 9,200 | ~$16B |

| June 2026 | 8,800 | ~$14B |

| September 2026 | 18,400 | ~$31B |

| December 2026 | 7,900 | ~$12B |

September is 2x any other month because it aligns with the end of the federal fiscal year. The solicitations for September expirations are posting between now and June. If you are not in capture mode today, you are already late for the largest recompete wave of the year.

Incumbent Vulnerability: When Recompetes Are Winnable

Overall, approximately 68% of recompetes are awarded to the incumbent. But that number is an average -- and averages hide everything useful.

The incumbent win rate drops dramatically when vulnerability factors are present:

| Vulnerability Factor | Incumbent Win Rate |

|---------------------|-------------------|

| No factors (baseline) | ~68% |

| Marginal/Unsatisfactory CPARS | ~41% |

| Prior GAO protest | ~38% |

| Significant scope change | ~35% |

| Set-aside type changed | ~33% |

| Contract value changed >30% | ~36% |

| Incumbent M&A activity | ~40% |

| 2+ factors present | Below 30% |

Not all recompetes are locked up. The data tells you which ones are open -- if you track the right signals.

Recompetes by Set-Aside Type

| Set-Aside | Expiring Value (12 months) |

|-----------|---------------------------|

| Full & Open | $69.7B |

| Small Business | $38B |

| 8(a) | $12.4B |

| SDVOSB | $9.8B |

| WOSB | $8.2B |

| HUBZone | $4.1B |

V. Pricing Benchmarks: What Agencies Actually Pay

These are loaded labor rates from actual contract awards -- not GSA ceiling rates, not what your accountant estimates, not what your competitor claims. These are what the government paid in FY2025.

IT Services (NAICS 541512)

| Labor Category | Range | Median |

|---------------|-------|--------|

| Help Desk / Tier 1 | $42-72/hr | $58/hr |

| Systems Administrator | $85-138/hr | $112/hr |

| Software Developer | $105-165/hr | $138/hr |

| Cloud Architect | $145-210/hr | $178/hr |

| Cybersecurity Engineer | $130-195/hr | $162/hr |

| Program Manager (IT) | $140-200/hr | $172/hr |

Engineering Services (NAICS 541330)

| Labor Category | Range | Median |

|---------------|-------|--------|

| Junior Engineer | $65-95/hr | $82/hr |

| Senior Engineer | $110-165/hr | $140/hr |

| Principal Engineer | $150-220/hr | $185/hr |

| Engineering PM | $135-195/hr | $168/hr |

Management Consulting (NAICS 541611)

| Labor Category | Range | Median |

|---------------|-------|--------|

| Analyst | $75-110/hr | $92/hr |

| Senior Consultant | $120-175/hr | $148/hr |

| Subject Matter Expert | $155-240/hr | $195/hr |

| Principal / Director | $180-280/hr | $228/hr |

Facilities & Security (NAICS 561210 / 561612)

| Labor Category | Range | Median |

|---------------|-------|--------|

| Security Guard (unarmed) | $22-38/hr | $28/hr |

| Security Guard (armed) | $28-48/hr | $36/hr |

| Facilities Technician | $32-55/hr | $42/hr |

| Facilities Manager | $65-95/hr | $78/hr |

Key Pricing Factors

**DoD premium:** DoD pays 15-25% more than civilian agencies for the same labor categories

**Clearance premium:** Cleared positions command 20-40% higher rates

**Sole-source premium:** Contracts under $5M (sole-source range) carry 8-12% higher rates than large competitive vehicles

**Geographic adjustment:** DC metro rates are 12-18% higher than other federal hubs

**Contract type:** Cost-plus contracts average 8-15% lower margins than firm-fixed-price

VI. The Geographic Map: Where Federal Dollars Land

Top 10 Metro Areas by Federal Contract Awards

| Metro Area | FY2025 Awards | Competition Ratio |

|-----------|-------------|-------------------|

| Washington DC Metro | $98.2B | 8.1 bidders/award |

| San Antonio | $42.1B | 5.3 |

| Huntsville | $28.4B | 6.7 |

| Denver / Colorado Springs | $18.6B | 4.2 |

| Hampton Roads / Norfolk | $16.8B | 5.1 |

| San Diego | $14.2B | 5.8 |

| Boston | $12.4B | 6.2 |

| Dallas-Fort Worth | $11.8B | 4.8 |

| Los Angeles | $10.6B | 5.5 |

| Tampa / St. Petersburg | $9.2B | 4.4 |

The Case for Working Outside the Beltway

The DC metro captures 14% of all federal contract dollars. It also has the highest competition ratio at 8.1 bidders per award -- nearly double Denver (4.2) or Tampa (4.4).

Denver and San Antonio offer the best dollars-to-competition ratio for firms willing to work outside DC. Denver's market is driven by Space Force (Buckley SFB), NOAA, BLM, and the Denver Federal Center. San Antonio's market is driven by JBSA (Joint Base San Antonio), DHA (Defense Health Agency), and NSA Texas.

For firms priced out of the DC market, regional federal hubs offer compelling alternatives with significantly less competition.

VII. The Q4 Agency Goal Playbook

The federal fiscal year ends September 30. Agencies that have not met their small business set-aside goals by Q3 (April-June) go into overdrive during Q4 (July-September).

Agencies That Consistently Struggle with Set-Aside Goals

| Agency | Weakest Goal Area | Pattern |

|--------|------------------|---------|

| DOE | SDVOSB (3% target) | Below goal 4 of last 5 years |

| NASA | HUBZone (3% target) | Historically struggles |

| State | WOSB (5% target) | Below goal 3 of last 5 years |

| DHS | 8(a) (5% target) | Inconsistent |

The Positioning Timeline

**January-March:** Agencies publish annual acquisition forecasts. Review these for upcoming set-aside opportunities in your NAICS codes.

**April-May:** Submit capability statements and meet with small business specialists. Attend OSDBU matchmaking events. This is your positioning window.

**June:** Follow up on every contact made in April-May. COs are reviewing Q3 numbers and identifying gaps.

**July-September:** Harvest season. Agencies behind on goals are actively seeking set-aside firms. COs are motivated to sole-source and set-aside to close the gap before September 30.

If you are reading this in February 2026, you are in the perfect window to position for Q4 harvest.

VIII. Top Contractors: Who Is Winning

Top 10 Federal Prime Contractors (FY2025)

|------|-----------|-------------|-----------------|------|

| 1 | Lockheed Martin | $48.7B | DoD | Large |

| 2 | RTX (Raytheon) | $28.4B | DoD | Large |

*Note: These are large businesses. Booz Allen, SAIC, Leidos, CACI, and ManTech are frequently confused with small businesses because they started small -- but all exceeded the SBA size standards years ago.*

Top Small Business Prime Contractors (FY2025)

|------|-----------|-------------|-----------------|-----------|

| 5 | Bowhead Professional Solutions | $740M | DoD | 8(a) / ANC |

The Alaska Native Corporation Factor

Six of the top 10 small business contractors are Alaska Native Corporation (ANC) subsidiaries. ANCs benefit from no dollar cap on sole-source 8(a) awards -- a structural advantage unavailable to non-ANC 8(a) firms, which are capped at $4.5M per sole-source.

This is why ANC subsidiaries dominate the top of the small business rankings -- they can receive sole-source contracts of any size, which accelerates revenue growth far beyond what non-ANC firms can achieve through the same program.

For non-ANC small businesses, the competitive landscape becomes more favorable below the $4.5M sole-source threshold where ANC advantages do not apply.

The Distributor Exception: Atlantic Diving Supply

One notable omission: Atlantic Diving Supply (ADS) generated $5B+ in FY2025 revenue under NAICS 339999, primarily through DLA's Tailored Logistics Support (DLS-TLS) program. By revenue, ADS is arguably the largest small business in federal contracting. They do not appear in the table above because DLS-TLS revenue flows through DLA as a supply chain intermediary and gets categorized differently in FPDS than traditional prime services contracts. ADS qualifies as small under the 1,000-employee size standard for NAICS 339999, though their revenue volume has triggered size standard challenges from competitors -- one of the more interesting edge cases in federal procurement.

IX. The Complete 12-Month BD Framework

Here is the capture strategy built from every data point in this report:

Months 1-2: Intelligence Gathering (Now)

Identify your top 3 NAICS codes by competition density (Section III)

Map your target agencies by set-aside spending (Section II)

Pull the recompete list for your NAICS codes expiring in 6-18 months (Section IV)

Research incumbent vulnerability on each recompete (CPARS, protests, scope changes)

Build a rate card using pricing benchmarks (Section V)

Months 3-4: Positioning

Submit capability statements to 10 target contracting offices

Attend 3-5 OSDBU matchmaking events for your target agencies

Meet with small business specialists and Program Managers

Request Sources Sought notifications for upcoming recompetes

Identify 2-3 sole-source opportunities under the threshold

Months 5-6: Pipeline Building

Respond to 3-5 Sources Sought and RFIs to get on agency radar

Build teaming relationships for contracts above your individual capability

Develop past performance narratives for your strongest 3-5 contracts

Finalize competitive pricing using benchmark data

Months 7-9: Q4 Harvest

Follow up on every capability statement from months 3-4

Target agencies behind on set-aside goals (Section VII)

Bid on 5-8 competitive set-asides in your NAICS codes

Pursue 2-3 sole-source opportunities with COs you have built relationships with

Leverage the September fiscal year-end urgency

Months 10-12: Next Cycle

Capture lessons learned from every win and loss

Update past performance documentation with new awards

Refresh recompete tracking for the next 12-month window

Begin intelligence gathering for the next cycle

X. The 10 Takeaways for Your Monday Morning Meeting

**$681B in federal contracts, 58% is DoD.** If DoD is not in your plan, you are ignoring the majority of the market.

**$109B went to small business set-asides.** The opportunity for certified firms is massive and growing.

**Sole-source is underutilized.** 40% of 8(a) dollars are sole-sourced, but only 20% of WOSB. Educate COs about your eligibility.

**$142B in contracts expire in the next 12 months.** September is 2x any other month. Position now.

**Construction and trades NAICS codes have 3-5x less competition** than IT and consulting per dollar awarded.

**Incumbent win rate drops from 68% to below 30%** when multiple vulnerability factors are present. Not all recompetes are locked up.

**Denver and San Antonio have the best competition ratios** outside DC. Regional markets are underserved.

**DoD pays 15-25% more** than civilian agencies. Clearances command 20-40% premiums. Price accordingly.

**Position by April-May for the Q4 surge.** Agencies behind on set-aside goals accelerate awards in July-September.

**The firms winning are not smarter. They are 12 months earlier.** The data exists. The patterns are predictable. The only variable is when you start.

FAQ: FY2025 Federal Contracting Market

Where does this data come from?

USAspending.gov (award data, obligation amounts), FPDS (Federal Procurement Data System, contract-level detail), SAM.gov (active solicitations, entity registrations), SBA Scorecard (agency set-aside goal attainment), and CPARS (contractor performance ratings). All publicly available federal data sources.

How often does this data change?

USAspending and FPDS update daily. SAM.gov solicitations update in real-time. SBA Scorecards publish annually. CPARS ratings update on a rolling basis as contract evaluations are completed.

How can I search this data myself?

USAspending.gov and SAM.gov are free. FPDS requires an account. Fed-Spend aggregates all sources into a single searchable interface with a free tier (10 searches/month) and paid tiers starting at $49/month. [Start searching →](/search)

Is this data accurate for my specific NAICS code?

The data in this report represents FY2025 totals across all agencies. Individual NAICS codes, agencies, and geographic areas will vary. Use this report as the macro framework, then drill into your specific NAICS and agency targets for precision.

How do I find recompete opportunities?

Search historical awards in your NAICS codes, identify contracts with periods of performance ending in 6-18 months, and research the incumbent. Fed-Spend tracks 85,000+ recompetes with automated expiration alerts. [Explore recompetes →](/recompete)

This report is free. The data is public. The only advantage is knowing where to look -- and starting before your competitors do.

[Search $681 billion in federal contracts on Fed-Spend →](/search)