The Short Answer

A recompete is a new procurement action where the federal government re-solicits work that was previously performed under an existing contract. When a contract nears the end of its period of performance (including all option years), the agency must decide whether to continue the work -- and if so, issue a new solicitation for competitive bids.

The incumbent contractor has performed the work. The government still needs it done. A new contract must be awarded.

That new contract is the recompete.

Why Recompetes Matter

Recompetes are the most predictable, highest-probability opportunity in federal contracting. Here's why:

1. The work is funded and validated

Unlike new requirements (which can be cancelled, defunded, or delayed), recompete work has an existing budget line, an existing workforce, and an existing performance history. Congress has been appropriating money for this work for years. It does not disappear.

2. The timeline is knowable

Every federal contract has a defined period of performance. A 5-year base contract awarded in 2020 expires in 2025. Add option years and the math is simple. The recompete timeline is not a secret -- it is published in the original award data.

3. The scope is largely defined

The Performance Work Statement (PWS) from the expiring contract tells you exactly what work was being done, at what scale, and to what standard. The new solicitation will be similar -- not identical, but similar. You are not guessing what the government wants. They have been buying it for 5-10 years.

4. The price is benchmarked

The award amount of the current contract tells you what the government has been paying. The new award will be in the same range, adjusted for inflation and scope changes. You have a pricing target before the RFP drops.

How a Recompete Works -- Step by Step

Phase 1: Pre-Solicitation (12-24 months before contract expiration)

The contracting officer begins planning the follow-on acquisition. Key activities:

**Requirements review** -- Is the work still needed? Has the scope changed?

**Market research** -- Are there capable vendors? Should this be set aside for small business?

**Acquisition strategy** -- Contract type (FFP, T&M, cost-plus), evaluation method (best value, LPTA), vehicle (full and open, IDIQ task order, GSA Schedule)

**Sources Sought / RFI** -- The agency may issue a Sources Sought notice or Request for Information on SAM.gov to gauge industry interest

This is where intelligent contractors start positioning. If you wait for the RFP, you are already behind.

Phase 2: Solicitation (3-6 months before award)

The agency issues a formal solicitation (RFP, RFQ, or task order request). Key elements:

**Performance Work Statement (PWS)** or Statement of Work (SOW) -- defines the work

**Evaluation criteria** -- how proposals will be scored

**Contract type** -- fixed-price, cost-reimbursement, T&M

**Set-aside status** -- full and open, small business, 8(a), HUBZone, SDVOSB, WOSB

**Period of performance** -- typically 1-year base + 4 option years, or 5-year base + 5-year option

**Proposal due date** -- usually 30-60 days after solicitation

Phase 3: Evaluation and Award (1-6 months after proposals due)

The government evaluates proposals against stated criteria. For recompetes:

**Incumbent advantage** -- The incumbent knows the work, the workforce, the agency culture. They have past performance ratings (CPARS). This is a structural advantage, not a guaranteed win.

**Challenger opportunity** -- Incumbents get comfortable. Their pricing may have inflated. Their staffing may be stale. A challenger with sharp pricing, fresh technical approach, and relevant past performance can unseat them.

**Protest risk** -- Recompetes have higher protest rates than new awards because the incumbent fights harder to keep work, and challengers invest more in their proposals.

Phase 4: Transition (30-90 days after award)

If a new contractor wins, there is a transition period. The outgoing incumbent transfers knowledge, access, and personnel (often the same employees switch employers). The incoming contractor assumes responsibility.

The Numbers: Federal Recompete Pipeline

FY2025-2026 Recompete Wave

Based on contract expiration data from FPDS and USAspending.gov:

| Metric | Value |

|--------|-------|

| Total contracts expiring FY2025-2026 | ~45,000 |

| Estimated recompete value | ~$180 billion |

| Defense (DOD) share | ~$108 billion (60%) |

| Civilian agency share | ~$72 billion (40%) |

Recompete by Contract Size

| Contract Value | % of Recompetes | Count |

|---------------|----------------|-------|

| Under $1M | 55% | ~24,750 |

| $1M - $10M | 28% | ~12,600 |

| $10M - $100M | 12% | ~5,400 |

| $100M - $1B | 4% | ~1,800 |

| Over $1B | 1% | ~450 |

The small and mid-size recompetes ($1M-$100M) are where emerging contractors win. The mega-recompetes ($100M+) are typically won by large primes or established mid-tiers with deep past performance.

Win Rates for Challengers vs. Incumbents

Industry data on recompete outcomes:

| Scenario | Incumbent Win Rate |

|----------|-------------------|

| Overall average | 70-75% |

| When incumbent has "Exceptional" CPARS | 85%+ |

| When incumbent has "Satisfactory" or below | 55-60% |

| When the contract was protested | 60% (lower due to evaluation scrutiny) |

| When there is a small business set-aside on recompete | 50-55% (incumbency matters less in set-asides) |

Incumbents win 70-75% of recompetes. That sounds discouraging for challengers -- until you realize:

25-30% of recompetes go to a new contractor. On $180B in recompetes, that is $45-$54 billion changing hands.

Incumbent win rates drop significantly when CPARS ratings are mediocre

Set-aside recompetes level the playing field

Agencies actively seek competition and may structure evaluations to reduce incumbency advantage

How to Find Recompetes

Method 1: Contract Expiration Data (Best)

Every federal contract award includes a period of performance and option years. By querying award data for contracts expiring in the next 12-24 months, filtered by your NAICS codes and target agencies, you build a pipeline of upcoming recompetes.

Data sources:

**FPDS-NG** (Federal Procurement Data System) -- Raw award data with performance periods

**USAspending.gov** -- Award data with agency and NAICS filtering

**Fed-Spend** -- Recompete Pipeline Dashboard with AI-scored win probability and automatic tracking

Method 2: Sources Sought / Pre-Solicitation Notices

Agencies often post Sources Sought or Pre-Solicitation notices on SAM.gov 6-12 months before a recompete RFP. Search for:

"Sources Sought" + your NAICS code

"Market Research" + your target agency

"Follow-on" or "Recompete" in the description

Method 3: Incumbent Analysis

Identify who currently holds contracts in your space. Look at their award dates and option year structure. If a competitor won a 5-year contract in 2021, the recompete comes around 2026. You can track this systematically.

Method 4: Agency Forecast Pages

Many federal agencies publish procurement forecasts listing planned acquisitions for the coming fiscal year. These often include recompetes. Check:

Agency OSDBU (Office of Small and Disadvantaged Business Utilization) pages

Agency acquisition forecast tools

Industry Day announcements

How to Win a Recompete (Against the Incumbent)

12-18 Months Out: Intelligence Gathering

**Pull the current contract data** -- Award amount, NAICS code, set-aside type, period of performance, incumbent contractor, contracting office

**Read the incumbent's CPARS** (if accessible) -- Past performance ratings signal vulnerability

**Review the original PWS/SOW** -- Understand what work is being done at what scale

**Identify subcontractors** -- The incumbent's team composition reveals who you might recruit or team with

**Track agency budget trends** -- Is this program growing, stable, or shrinking?

6-12 Months Out: Positioning

**Attend agency industry days** -- These are free intelligence. Ask questions about the follow-on acquisition timeline and evaluation approach

**Submit capability statements** -- Ensure the contracting officer knows you exist and can perform the work

**Respond to Sources Sought** -- A well-crafted Sources Sought response shapes the acquisition strategy. If you do not respond, the CO may conclude there is insufficient competition

**Build your team** -- Identify key personnel, teaming partners, and subcontractors. Lock in letters of commitment

**Develop your technical approach** -- Start writing before the RFP drops. You know the scope.

0-6 Months Out: Proposal Execution

**Price to win** -- You know the current contract value. Price within 5-10% of the incumbent's rate unless you have a compelling technical discriminator

**Highlight innovation** -- What can you do differently, better, faster, cheaper than the status quo? The government is looking for improvement, not replication

**Leverage past performance** -- Relevant past performance on similar work at similar scale. If you do not have direct past performance, team with someone who does

**Address transition risk** -- The government's biggest fear with a new contractor is a failed transition. Your proposal must include a detailed, credible transition plan

**Staff with the right people** -- Named key personnel with clearances, certifications, and demonstrated experience. Generic resumes lose.

Common Recompete Terms

| Term | Meaning |

|------|---------|

| **Recompete** | New solicitation for work currently under an existing contract |

| **Incumbent** | The contractor currently performing the work |

| **Follow-on** | Synonym for recompete (sometimes implies less change in scope) |

| **Bridge contract** | Short-term extension of the current contract to cover the gap if the recompete is delayed |

| **Option year** | Pre-negotiated extension period (usually 1 year) that the government can exercise without a new competition |

| **Period of Performance (PoP)** | The total time the contract is active (base + options) |

| **CPARS** | Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System -- the government's rating of the incumbent's performance |

| **Sources Sought** | Market research notice asking if vendors are capable and interested |

| **PWS** | Performance Work Statement -- defines the work requirements |

| **LPTA** | Lowest Price Technically Acceptable -- evaluation method where cheapest qualified bid wins |

| **Best Value** | Evaluation method where price and technical quality are both weighed |

The Recompete Intelligence Advantage

The contractors who consistently win recompetes -- whether as the incumbent defending or a challenger attacking -- share one trait: they track expiring contracts systematically, not reactively.

The data is public. Every contract award, every period of performance, every option year, every NAICS code, every incumbent contractor, every contracting office -- it is all in the federal procurement record.

The question is not whether this information exists. It does. The question is whether you are tracking it 18 months out or finding out when the RFP posts on SAM.gov and you have 30 days to respond.

$180 billion in recompetes. $45-54 billion changing hands. The timeline is knowable. The scope is defined. The pricing is benchmarked.

The only variable is preparation.

[Search expiring contracts →](/recompete)