What Does Recompete Mean in Government Contracting? The $180 Billion Opportunity Most Contractors Miss
A recompete is when the government re-solicits work from an expiring contract. There is $180 billion in federal recompetes coming in FY2025-2026. Here is how to find them, track them, and win them.
The Short Answer
A recompete is a new procurement action where the federal government re-solicits work that was previously performed under an existing contract. When a contract nears the end of its period of performance (including all option years), the agency must decide whether to continue the work -- and if so, issue a new solicitation for competitive bids.
The incumbent contractor has performed the work. The government still needs it done. A new contract must be awarded.
That new contract is the recompete.
Why Recompetes Matter
Recompetes are the most predictable, highest-probability opportunity in federal contracting. Here's why:
1. The work is funded and validated
Unlike new requirements (which can be cancelled, defunded, or delayed), recompete work has an existing budget line, an existing workforce, and an existing performance history. Congress has been appropriating money for this work for years. It does not disappear.
2. The timeline is knowable
Every federal contract has a defined period of performance. A 5-year base contract awarded in 2020 expires in 2025. Add option years and the math is simple. The recompete timeline is not a secret -- it is published in the original award data.
3. The scope is largely defined
The Performance Work Statement (PWS) from the expiring contract tells you exactly what work was being done, at what scale, and to what standard. The new solicitation will be similar -- not identical, but similar. You are not guessing what the government wants. They have been buying it for 5-10 years.
4. The price is benchmarked
The award amount of the current contract tells you what the government has been paying. The new award will be in the same range, adjusted for inflation and scope changes. You have a pricing target before the RFP drops.
How a Recompete Works -- Step by Step
Phase 1: Pre-Solicitation (12-24 months before contract expiration)
The contracting officer begins planning the follow-on acquisition. Key activities:
This is where intelligent contractors start positioning. If you wait for the RFP, you are already behind.
Phase 2: Solicitation (3-6 months before award)
The agency issues a formal solicitation (RFP, RFQ, or task order request). Key elements:
Phase 3: Evaluation and Award (1-6 months after proposals due)
The government evaluates proposals against stated criteria. For recompetes:
Phase 4: Transition (30-90 days after award)
If a new contractor wins, there is a transition period. The outgoing incumbent transfers knowledge, access, and personnel (often the same employees switch employers). The incoming contractor assumes responsibility.
The Numbers: Federal Recompete Pipeline
FY2025-2026 Recompete Wave
Based on contract expiration data from FPDS and USAspending.gov:
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total contracts expiring FY2025-2026 | ~45,000 |
| Estimated recompete value | ~$180 billion |
| Defense (DOD) share | ~$108 billion (60%) |
| Civilian agency share | ~$72 billion (40%) |
Recompete by Contract Size
| Contract Value | % of Recompetes | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Under $1M | 55% | ~24,750 |
| $1M - $10M | 28% | ~12,600 |
| $10M - $100M | 12% | ~5,400 |
| $100M - $1B | 4% | ~1,800 |
| Over $1B | 1% | ~450 |
The small and mid-size recompetes ($1M-$100M) are where emerging contractors win. The mega-recompetes ($100M+) are typically won by large primes or established mid-tiers with deep past performance.
Win Rates for Challengers vs. Incumbents
Industry data on recompete outcomes:
| Scenario | Incumbent Win Rate |
|---|---|
| Overall average | 70-75% |
| When incumbent has "Exceptional" CPARS | 85%+ |
| When incumbent has "Satisfactory" or below | 55-60% |
| When the contract was protested | 60% (lower due to evaluation scrutiny) |
| When there is a small business set-aside on recompete | 50-55% (incumbency matters less in set-asides) |
Incumbents win 70-75% of recompetes. That sounds discouraging for challengers -- until you realize:
How to Find Recompetes
Method 1: Contract Expiration Data (Best)
Every federal contract award includes a period of performance and option years. By querying award data for contracts expiring in the next 12-24 months, filtered by your NAICS codes and target agencies, you build a pipeline of upcoming recompetes.
Data sources:
Method 2: Sources Sought / Pre-Solicitation Notices
Agencies often post Sources Sought or Pre-Solicitation notices on SAM.gov 6-12 months before a recompete RFP. Search for:
Method 3: Incumbent Analysis
Identify who currently holds contracts in your space. Look at their award dates and option year structure. If a competitor won a 5-year contract in 2021, the recompete comes around 2026. You can track this systematically.
Method 4: Agency Forecast Pages
Many federal agencies publish procurement forecasts listing planned acquisitions for the coming fiscal year. These often include recompetes. Check:
How to Win a Recompete (Against the Incumbent)
12-18 Months Out: Intelligence Gathering
6-12 Months Out: Positioning
0-6 Months Out: Proposal Execution
Common Recompete Terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Recompete | New solicitation for work currently under an existing contract |
| Incumbent | The contractor currently performing the work |
| Follow-on | Synonym for recompete (sometimes implies less change in scope) |
| Bridge contract | Short-term extension of the current contract to cover the gap if the recompete is delayed |
| Option year | Pre-negotiated extension period (usually 1 year) that the government can exercise without a new competition |
| Period of Performance (PoP) | The total time the contract is active (base + options) |
| CPARS | Contractor Performance Assessment Reporting System -- the government's rating of the incumbent's performance |
| Sources Sought | Market research notice asking if vendors are capable and interested |
| PWS | Performance Work Statement -- defines the work requirements |
| LPTA | Lowest Price Technically Acceptable -- evaluation method where cheapest qualified bid wins |
| Best Value | Evaluation method where price and technical quality are both weighed |
The Recompete Intelligence Advantage
The contractors who consistently win recompetes -- whether as the incumbent defending or a challenger attacking -- share one trait: they track expiring contracts systematically, not reactively.
The data is public. Every contract award, every period of performance, every option year, every NAICS code, every incumbent contractor, every contracting office -- it is all in the federal procurement record.
The question is not whether this information exists. It does. The question is whether you are tracking it 18 months out or finding out when the RFP posts on SAM.gov and you have 30 days to respond.
$180 billion in recompetes. $45-54 billion changing hands. The timeline is knowable. The scope is defined. The pricing is benchmarked.
The only variable is preparation.
Related Guides
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