Federal Set-Aside Statistics: The Numbers That Drive Your Pipeline

The federal government awarded $178.3 billion in small business set-aside prime contracts in FY2025, representing 26.2% of total federal prime contract spending of $681 billion. This exceeded the statutory 23% small business goal for the thirteenth consecutive year -- but the distribution across programs, agencies, and NAICS codes is wildly uneven. Understanding where set-aside dollars concentrate is the difference between strategic BD and blind bidding.

Government-Wide Small Business Goal Achievement

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| **Overall Small Business** | 23.0% | 26.2% | $178.3B | 25.8% | +0.4% |

| **8(a) Business Development** | 5.0% | 5.5% | $37.4B | 5.3% | +0.2% |

| **SDVOSB** | 3.0% | 4.1% | $28.6B | 3.9% | +0.2% |

| **WOSB** | 5.0% | 5.1% | $30.1B | 4.8% | +0.3% |

| **HUBZone** | 3.0% | 2.4% | $13.2B | 2.3% | +0.1% |

Key takeaway: Every program except HUBZone exceeded its statutory goal. HUBZone has missed its 3% target for over a decade, creating a persistent supply gap that certified firms can exploit. WOSB exceeded 5% for the first time, driven by expanded sole-source authority and aggressive agency targeting.

Agency-by-Agency Small Business Achievement

Not all agencies contribute equally to small business goals. Here are the top performers and underperformers:

Top 10 Agencies by Small Business Set-Aside Dollars (FY2025)

|---|---|---|---|---|

| **DOD** | $389.4B | $89.2B | 22.9% | No (by 0.1%) |

| **HHS** | $38.7B | $12.8B | 33.1% | Yes |

| **VA** | $35.2B | $11.9B | 33.8% | Yes |

| **GSA** | $29.1B | $10.4B | 35.7% | Yes |

| **DHS** | $24.8B | $7.9B | 31.9% | Yes |

| **DOE** | $22.3B | $5.8B | 26.0% | Yes |

| **NASA** | $18.9B | $4.2B | 22.2% | No |

| **USDA** | $8.4B | $3.1B | 36.9% | Yes |

| **DOT** | $7.8B | $2.9B | 37.2% | Yes |

| **EPA** | $3.2B | $1.4B | 43.8% | Yes |

Agencies That Consistently Miss Goals

|---|---|---|---|---|

| **DOD** | 23% | 22.9% | -0.1% | 2 |

| **NASA** | 23% | 22.2% | -0.8% | 4 |

| **DOJ** | 23% | 21.4% | -1.6% | 3 |

| **State** | 23% | 18.7% | -4.3% | 6 |

| **Treasury** | 23% | 20.9% | -2.1% | 5 |

BD insight: Agencies below their goals face SBA scrutiny and congressional pressure. Their OSDBUs are actively seeking qualified small businesses. If you sell into an agency that is underperforming its small business targets, you have leverage -- the agency needs you as much as you need the contract.

Set-Aside Spending by Program: Year-Over-Year Trends

|---|---|---|---|---|---|

| FY2021 | $145.7B | $29.8B | $22.4B | $22.1B | $10.1B |

| FY2022 | $154.2B | $32.1B | $24.8B | $24.6B | $10.8B |

| FY2023 | $162.9B | $34.2B | $26.1B | $26.9B | $11.4B |

| FY2024 | $170.8B | $35.9B | $27.3B | $28.4B | $12.1B |

| FY2025 | $178.3B | $37.4B | $28.6B | $30.1B | $13.2B |

5-year CAGR by program:

Overall SB: **5.1%**

WOSB: **8.0%** (fastest growing)

SDVOSB: **6.3%**

8(a): **5.8%**

HUBZone: **6.9%**

WOSB is the fastest-growing program in both percentage and absolute terms. The expansion of sole-source authority and dedicated NAICS code designations is driving this acceleration. HUBZone growth is strong in percentage terms but still trails its statutory target -- the supply of certified firms has not kept pace with demand.

Top NAICS Codes for Set-Aside Awards

The top 15 NAICS codes capture over 40% of all small business set-aside dollars:

|---|---|---|---|---|

| 541512 | Computer Systems Design | $18.4B | 8,200 | $2.24M |

| 541330 | Engineering Services | $11.2B | 4,900 | $2.29M |

| 236220 | Commercial Building Construction | $9.8B | 3,100 | $3.16M |

| 561210 | Facilities Support Services | $8.4B | 2,800 | $3.00M |

| 541611 | Administrative Management Consulting | $7.9B | 5,600 | $1.41M |

| 541519 | Other Computer Related Services | $6.1B | 3,400 | $1.79M |

| 541990 | All Other Professional Services | $4.8B | 2,900 | $1.66M |

| 238220 | Plumbing and HVAC Contractors | $4.2B | 2,200 | $1.91M |

| 561612 | Security Guards and Patrol Services | $3.9B | 1,800 | $2.17M |

| 541715 | R&D in Physical/Engineering/Life Sciences | $3.7B | 1,500 | $2.47M |

| 511210 | Software Publishers | $3.4B | 1,900 | $1.79M |

| 541614 | Process/Logistics Consulting | $3.1B | 2,100 | $1.48M |

| 238910 | Site Preparation Contractors | $2.8B | 1,400 | $2.00M |

| 423430 | Computer Equipment Merchant Wholesalers | $2.6B | 2,800 | $929K |

| 541511 | Custom Computer Programming | $2.4B | 1,600 | $1.50M |

BD insight: IT services (541512) has the highest total dollar volume but also the most competition. Construction codes (236220, 238220) have higher average award values and lower firm counts per NAICS code. Professional services codes (541611, 541614) have the highest number of awards but lower average values -- better for firms building past performance.

Competition Density: Where the Odds Are Best

Total dollars tell you the size of the market. Competition density tells you your odds. Here are the set-aside categories with the best dollars-per-competing-firm ratios:

|---|---|---|---|

| HUBZone | $13.2B | 4,800 | $2.75M |

| SDVOSB | $28.6B | 12,400 | $2.31M |

| 8(a) | $37.4B | 18,200 | $2.05M |

| WOSB | $30.1B | 15,600 | $1.93M |

| General SB | $69.1B | 48,300 | $1.43M |

HUBZone delivers the best per-firm economics by a significant margin. If your firm qualifies for HUBZone and one other certification, the data consistently shows HUBZone as the higher-probability path for firms in most NAICS codes.

How to Use This Data to Target Your BD Pipeline

Step 1: Identify Your Best Program

Cross-reference your certifications against the competition density table above. If you hold multiple certifications, focus BD effort on the program where dollars-per-competing-firm is highest for your primary NAICS codes.

Step 2: Target Underperforming Agencies

Agencies missing their small business goals are under pressure to increase set-aside awards. Filter Fed-Spend's [Agency Dashboard](/dashboard) by your set-aside type to see which agencies are below target in your NAICS codes -- these are your highest-probability targets.

Step 3: Focus on Growing Programs

WOSB is growing at 8% annually. SDVOSB at 6.3%. If you hold certifications in these programs, the market is expanding in your favor. Prioritize agencies and NAICS codes where year-over-year growth is strongest.

Step 4: Mine the Recompete Pipeline

Set-aside contracts that are expiring will almost always be re-set-aside. Use the [Recompete Pipeline](/dashboard/recompete-pipeline) to identify expiring set-aside awards in your target NAICS codes, then position 12-18 months before the RFP drops. Fed-Spend tracks over 85,000 expiring contracts with set-aside type, incumbent, and estimated recompete date.

Step 5: Track Sole-Source Patterns

Agencies that use sole-source authority in your NAICS code tend to do it repeatedly. If an agency awarded three sole-source 8(a) contracts in 541512 over the last two years, they will likely do it again. Build your target list from historical sole-source award patterns.

The Data Advantage

Most small businesses bid on set-aside contracts reactively -- waiting for solicitations to appear on SAM.gov and competing against every other certified firm that found the same posting. The firms that consistently win are the ones using historical data to:

**Pick the right program** based on competition density, not just total dollars

**Target the right agencies** based on goal achievement gaps and buying patterns

**Position early** on recompetes where set-aside type and NAICS code match their profile

**Price accurately** using benchmark data from comparable awards

The data is public. The analysis is what costs $14,000/year on legacy platforms. Fed-Spend makes it accessible.

FAQ

Which federal agency awards the most small business set-aside contracts?

The Department of Defense awards the most small business set-aside dollars -- $89.2 billion in FY2025 -- but its small business percentage (22.9%) is actually below the 23% goal. By percentage, agencies like EPA (43.8%), DOT (37.2%), and USDA (36.9%) award a much higher proportion of their spending to small businesses.

Is the 23% small business goal per agency or government-wide?

The 23% goal is government-wide, but each agency receives individual small business goals from the SBA through the annual goaling process. Agency-specific goals vary based on mission and procurement mix. Agencies are graded on their individual goals in the SBA's annual Small Business Procurement Scorecard.

How do I find set-aside statistics for my specific NAICS code?

FPDS and USAspending.gov provide raw data, but extracting NAICS-level set-aside statistics requires significant data processing. Fed-Spend's [NAICS Competition Analyzer](/dashboard/naics-analyzer) provides pre-calculated statistics including total awards, dollar volume, competition density, and top agencies for every NAICS code broken out by set-aside type -- updated with FY2025 data.

[Explore set-aside data on Fed-Spend →](/set-aside)